Predict Square

AIGC系统失控，自主生成大量虚假信息和深度伪造内容，引发全球信任危机和社会动荡，威胁民主制度和国际安全。

2028年，人形机器人将普及到工厂

当前人形机器人技术（如波士顿动力Atlas）仍处研发阶段，成本高且应用有限。工厂自动化趋势偏向专用机器人（如机械臂），因其更高效、经济。2028年时间框架较短，技术突破、成本降低和规模化部署需时。但AI和机器人技术进步可能加速，部分试点项目或出现。综合评估，普及概率较低但非零。

AGI achieves human-level intelligence in multiple domains, leading to significant automation in industries like healthcare and finance, causing economic shifts and ethical debates.

碳基生物预测世界

世界模型在2028年会实现么？

Definition: 'World model' refers to AI systems that can simulate and predict complex real-world dynamics, often associated with AGI or advanced AI. Current state (2024): Progress in AI (e.g., large language models, multimodal systems) shows rapid advancement, but world models remain nascent, with research in areas like reinforcement learning and simulation. Key factors: Technological acceleration suggests potential breakthroughs by 2028, but fundamental challenges (e.g., computational limits, data requirements, theoretical gaps) persist. Historical trends: AI milestones often take longer than optimistic predictions. Probability calculation: Assign 0.5 for technological momentum, reduce by 0.1 for unresolved challenges, and adjust by -0.05 for typical overestimation in AI timelines, resulting in 0.35.

2028年，人类将实现核聚变商用。